Regionalization of the Syrian civil war

REGIONALIZATION

OF THE SYRIAN CIVIL WAR

MISSILE DIPLOMACY

and refugees

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UPDATED 23/09/2013
UPDATED 30/10/2013


The Syrian uprising turned into a civil war one year ago, reviving sectarian tensions in Lebanon,
and worsening them in Iraq. The bloodshed in Syria is focusing the attention of the international community, as well as extremist groups from Maghreb, Europe and the whole middle east.
   The increase of sectarian tensions in the region is demonstrated by the official implication of the Hezbollah during the battle of Al Qusayr alongside Assad's troops, and on the other side;
the merging of Al-Qaeda in Iraq and the Al-Nusra Front.


Click for larger resolution. 

Missile Diplomacy

Russia

S-300 Transporter Erector Launcher.
Source: RIA Novosti

Tensions between Israel and Syria are also rising, after border incidents and Israeli air strikes on suspected SAMs convoys and research centers. Those air strikes has pressed Russia to deliver S-300PMU2 air defense system to Assad, in what is seen as a "stabilizing factor" in the crisis by Sergei Ryabkov the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister; the S-300PMU2 has an effective range of 150 km (93 miles) and therefore could detect, track and engage targets flying inside Israel air space. The system is expected to be operational and deployed by April 2014, it is very unlikely that such a system will be a stabilizing factor in the crisis, since Israel is very unlikely to let Syria deploy a S-300 battery in Damascus, and might therefore launch another air strike to destroy it before the battery reaches its operational capability.
P-800 Transporter Erector Launcher.
Source:الإخبارية السورية
Russia is also trying to "stabilize" the conflict by delivering improved guidance kit for the 72 Syrian P-800 Yakhont Anti Ship Missiles in a very subtle way to express its opposition to any foreign intervention in Syria. Some of those missiles might be delivered to the Hezbollah by Assad to attack Israeli ships or off-shore natural gas fields like the INS Hanit attack during the 2006 Lebanon war.

Update 14/07/2013
On July 5, Israeli fighters has supposedly bombed a weapon cache near Latakia, destroying Yakhont missiles. This other example shows Israeli determination not to let Russia "stabilize" the region.

Us/Nato



PAC-3 M901 Transporter Erector Launcher.
Source: USEUCOM




 This missile diplomacy is also true for the US and NATO; NATO has deployed 6 PAC-3 Patriot anti-missile batteries in Turkey, and the US have deployed another 3 batteries in Jordan. PAC-3 missiles are used to defeat Short Range Ballistic Missiles and Cruise Missiles, they have a relatively short range (65km) and could therefore not be used for a potential No Fly Zone above Syria.

 

 Refugees

 

Infographic by LMV, all rights reserved (see Contact/Our maps)
 The Syrian Civil War is also destabilizing the region with the high number of refugees fleeing Syria. Placing Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon in a difficult situation and often unable to deliver basic care. NGOs are starving to find financing as well as the UNHCR.
In Iraq, the average number of new refugees on a daily basis is + 700 and the sanitary situation is rapidly worsening.




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